Delta Means Difference

Dear Readers !

It should be noted that this whole writing thing took off for me due to the COVID 19 Pandemic. Up until then, I and the rest of the J.E.S. crew were comfortable gaming away and watching the world go by as we tuned in to our favorite You-Tuber families like Critical Role or listened to the McElroy’s podcasts on The Adventure Zone (which I give credit for our interest in Monster of the Week - which drove the Pair of Normal Girls adventures). Not to be political or anything, but I was confused by the end of the Trump Administration and the beginning of the Biden Administration on where this whole COVID agenda thing was going.

Sure, we had to shut things down to prevent the spread until we got the vaccinations going. Sure, the economy took a hit, kid’s grades dipped, and we had to take an honest look at “necessities” over “wants”. From the Spring of 2019 until the lifting of the COVID restrictions it was a strange time to be alive - probably not so different than the days of the Spanish Flu during the time of H.P. Lovecraft (props to him for inspiring “Why I Write”). When I took back to work after five or so months off due to the restrictions, everywhere there was posters that declared “Be Mindful”, “Be Tolerant”, “Be Understanding”. And that is where I am now -trying to understand what exactly is going on with the world and the Delta variant. Because Delta means a bit more than just the next iteration of this disease - it literally means “a difference” - between one stage and the next. And this is where I feel we, as a society, need to be…making a difference.

In my blog about a year ago (Trippin), I highlighted the similarities in the Captain Trips disease from Stephen King’s The Stand and COVID 19:

• Captain Trips, as stated on page 29, has a 99.4% communicability.

  • COVID-19 where the (best estimated) median time for incubation is 8-13 days (let’s say 95% of the time)

• Campion, the dude who ran from the facility where the strain was designed (646-AB) and started the events in the book did not show symptoms for 50 hours.

  • The full median of the population showing COVID 19 symptoms somewhere between 8-62 days. A strong majority will show symptoms between 8 and 29 days, with an outlier (the 1%) showing no symptoms between 29 and 56.

The Delta variant isn’t a whole lot different, from my understanding. But the goalposts have changed from the day I wrote the above - now we have a vaccine; and even the low-end of the dosages offers some protection. USA Today reported (8/4 #s) The U.S. has had more than 35.3 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 614,700 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The global totals: More than 200 million cases and 4.25 million deaths. More than 165.3 million Americans – 49.8% of the population – have been fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. Yet, More than 90% of new coronavirus infections across the U.S. are from the delta variant. Hospital beds in Florida and Louisiana are at a premium . According to Reuters, the contagion level for younger children is higher.

Then there is the Super Spreader Events. One thing i have sought is what defines a “Super Spreader Event” ? According to the Cleveland Clinic - there is no real criteria; it is loosely defined as an event where the transmission is greater than what should be expected. SO, if the COVID 19 has a 99% communicability rate - then ANY event where an infected person is at would be expected to have a great spread of the virus. Therefore, without vaccinations - any event has the potential to be a super spreader event. Now, with the advent of medication, one would expect that the number of infection should be a bit “less”. According to the CDC, the 2020 Sturgis Rally attended by 60K persons only had 2 infections traced initially which spread to 51 primary, 21 secondary, and 5 tertiary cases - four in total hospitalized with one death; less than .1% of the attendance was affected.

Compared with the Obama Birthday (reported 200 attendees), attended by a more “sophisticated crowd” (not my words), where the CDC estimates a 5.8 person transmission rate per 10K persons (.058 % … more than that of the 2019 Sturgis rate). We should be watching the numbers for the effects - 11 to 12 persons could be affected by that party alone. Assuming the same rate of transmission, this year’s Sturgis (estimated to have 700K attendees) would have an infection rate of 40K. Of course, this all depends on the “clusters”, transmission shedding and a whole lot of other factors that, frankly, I’m not educated enough to make good enough math to predict.

I guess what I am getting at is that with the divisiveness of the news and what is being reported (or not), the wants and needs of others to behave as if this infection doesn’t exist, and the general “fact of” the precautions for the rest of us exist - all we need to do is take up the mantle… the need to be mindful, tolerant, and understanding to those unwilling to get vaccinated and save their and other’s lives just is beyond me. If anything (going back to the horror theme) that 28 Weeks Later has taught me - even the best intentions of entering a quarantined zone will deliver infection by an a-symptomatic carrier. In movies that have taken from this theme, it is always “the one” person that thinks nothing bad is going to happen that wrecks it for everyone. Sure, there are folks out there that have reasons for not being vaccinated (i.e. health issues)…but that doesn’t give them the right to be selfish or reckless to the endangerment of others. That is something I can’t get behind.

Stay safe out there. If you are not vaccinated - it’s time to make with a Delta. Change for the better.

-S

Five Miles Downrange:

Working on multiple publications ! Episode Eight of Slipping the Gears is in development and should be posted on Kindle Vella next week. Pair of Normal Girls #3, Angry Sun, Proper Moon (still a working title ) is also still being developed. Busy Summer !

We just ended a promotion on Blue Summer on Amazon Kindle, and we will be hosting another promotion, this time for Gruff Ending, from August 15-19. Get your copy, and give us a review !